Trump said this week that it’s too early to be mentioning a potential vice presidential nominee. But, actually, it’s not too early to start thinking about possible vice presidential nominees. Let’s talk about who will probably get the Republican presidential nomination and who they might choose for their vice presidential nominee now …
Where Does the Republican Presidential Nomination Stand?
On Monday, when this blog post is written, the Republican presidential polls have changed. The Trump – Carson difference has continued to be closer than a few weeks ago. According to the RealClear Politics average of recent polls, Trump and Carson are only about 2.6% apart. In the most recent poll, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on Monday, Trump was ahead of Carson 25 – 22. Last Wednesday’s FOX News poll, Trump had 24% and Carson 23%. That’s only one point apart. Compare that to a few weeks ago, when Trump was ahead of Carson by 10%, give or take.
In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on Monday, Marco Rubio is in third place. Of interest, Ted Cruz had moved up into third place behind Trump and Carson in both the CBS News and the FOX News polls last week. However, in the RealClear Politics average poll, Marco Rubio continues to be in third place.
Who Will Trump or Carson or Rubio or Cruz Pick for their VP Nominees, if they are Nominated?
With all the presidential candidates on the national stage, the Republican Party has a lot of potential vice presidential nominees. The best pick depends on the presidential nominee. Who makes sense for each of the current Republican presidential poll leaders?
1. Trump – If Trump holds on to his polling lead and becomes the Republican presidential nominee, he has lots of choices for the VP slot. Ben Carson would bring a strong evangelical Christian to the ticket that has been good at attracting support in the polls and raising campaign donations. Ben Carson’s home State of Maryland is not thought to be in play and the 10 electoral votes are considered likely to go to the Democratic Party nominee. So, his home State is not part of the electoral strategy most likely. Ted Cruz, who is the senator from Texas and lives in Houston, Texas, would help to solidify its 38 electoral votes. Ted Cruz likes Trump and seems to have a positive relationship with Trump. He adds a lot of intellectual firepower, solid conservative credentials, and an outsider perspective. He is also a top notch debater, having been a national debate champion twice. Another possibility for Trump would be Carly Fiorina. She is articulate and good with handling the press. Carly lives in Virginia.
2. Carson – If Ben Carson gets the nomination, no one will expect him to pick Trump for VP. Trump is a CEO type personality and probably would never consider a number two spot on the ticket. Again, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina are possible VP nominee choices. Note that Ted Cruz has done a much better job at fund-raising then Carly Fiorina has done.
3. Rubio – If Marco Rubio is able to get the nomination, he might select Ben Carson or John Kasich for his VP nominee. Ben Carson offers somewhat similar views on some issues, while John Kasich offers geographical balance on the ticket and a possible help in obtaining Ohio’s important 18 electoral votes.
4. Cruz – If Ted Cruz continues to slowly move up and gets the nomination, he might consider Carly Fiorina for her strengths as a campaigner. But, her conservative stands are probably not as aligned with Ted Cruz as he might like. Or, Ted Cruz might select Marco Rubio to help carry the State of Florida, a swing State with 29 important electoral votes he needs to get to the winning total of 270. He might also turn to Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, for his intellectual prowess and solid conservative policy positions.
What News Might We Expect between Now and the Third Republican Debate on October 28th in Boulder, Colorado?
I expect about three Republican presidential candidates will suspend their campaigns before October 28th. If not, then I think they will suspend soon after the debate. The most likely to leave is George Pataki former governor of New York whose current “burn rate” is 226%.
Burn rate is the % of campaign expenses divided by campaign donations received. For example, a 200% burn rate means you are spending twice as much money as you are getting in campaign donations.
Again, George Pataki’s burn rate is 226%. Bobby Jindal’s burn rate is 144%. Mike Huckabee’s burn rate is 110%.
Pataki, Jindal and Huckabee, in my opinion, are mostly likely to suspend their campaigns soon.
Rand Paul and Lindsey Graham also have high burn rates. But, I think they have higher cash balances to fall back on.
For More Information
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Originally posted on October 19, 2015 on GerardLameiro.com.