Trump Reboots While Clinton Relaxes – Who Will Win in November?

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Trump Reboots His Campaign While Clinton Relaxes

Trump reboots his campaign at this critical end-of-summer pivot point for his campaign, while Clinton apparently confident of victory rests, relaxes, and only schedules a few appearances and fund-raisers. It’s a fascinating election and it continues to be the historic and critical presidential election I predicted in my 2016 book Great News for America.

Trump Listens, Learns, and Reboots

Following a few well publicized distractions and missteps after the national conventions, Trump has apparently listened and followed the advice of national conservative thinkers that likely included Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, and Sean Hannity. Their counsel, along with the advice of others, was:

  • To focus on the failed policies of Clinton and Obama, and
  • To focus on Trump’s real solutions to America’s real problems, notably, global terrorism, illegal immigration, and law and order in our cities.

Law and order has come to forefront in this campaign with rioting and the deaths of police officers in a number of cities.

Trump has decided to pivot away from many distractions and focus on rebooting his campaign on the issues that won him the nomination. That said, Trump will probably continue to send out tweets that criticize some of his harshest critics. That seems to be part of his personal style.

At the Same Time, Clinton Self-Assured of Victory, Chooses to Rest and Relax

While Trump is changing his campaign style and content, Clinton schedules only a few campaign appearances and focuses more on raising money. At latest count, it’s been 260 days since her last press conference.  Her campaign strategy appears to be:

  • If you think you’re going to win, avoid public appearances.
  • Don’t answer even easy questions, let along difficult questions.
  • Make Trump the issue
  • Avoid the issues of national security, the economy, ethical issues (emails, Clinton Foundation, etc.), health questions
  • Run out the clock

Of course, some people probably believe the rest, relaxation, and light campaign itinerary are due to Clinton’s potential health problems.

Who Will Win in November?

It’s been a seesaw election. Trump bounced up 6% after the Republican National Convention. Clinton bounced back about 7% after the Democratic National Convention. Both bounces are somewhat understandable. Then, Clinton pulled ahead when Trump was distracted. Clinton has held a fairly consistent lead in many polls, until Trump’s reboot. Trump now appears to be surging forward again. The latest LA Times/USC poll shows Trump ahead by 2%.

I continue to remain confident that Trump will ultimately prevail. I think:

  • Polling Models are under-counting Trump’s support by about 5%
  • Polling Models are under-counting Clinton’s support by about 1%
  • Polling Models are over-counting Johnson’s support by about 4%
  • Polling Models are over-counting Stein’s support by about 2%

The Presidential Electoral College results should reflect the popular vote this year with a Trump win.

What Factors are Included in My Analysis?

Some factors I include in my analysis:

  • Voter Turnout Dynamics
    • By State
    • By Party
    • By Rates
    • By Long Term Trends/Expectations
    • By Short Term Trends/Expectations
  • Voter Registration Dynamics
    • Uptrends
    • Downtrends
    • Party Switching Trends
    • Delta Trends from Prior Elections
  • Voter Intensity
    • Will Voters Follow Up Their Support by Actually Voting in the Election?
    • What is the Rate of Follow Through on Support for a Candidate?
  • Voter Momentum
    • Is Support for a Candidate Increasing?
    • What is the Rate at which Support for a Candidate is Increasing?
  • Voter Mood Variables
    • Enthusiasm
    • Optimism for Future
    • Better Future for My Children?
    • Better Now than 4 Years Ago?
    • Nation is On Track vs. Off Track?
    • Other
  • Changes/Patterns in Voter Intensity among Voting Blocs
  • Changes/Patterns in Voter Momentum among Voting Blocs
  • Long Wave American Trends (Time Period = One or More Constitutional Eras)
  • Short Wave American Trends (Time Period = Less than One Constitutional Era)
  • Economic Variables
    • Jobs
    • Personal Income
    • GDP Growth Rate
    • Food Costs
    • Housing Costs
    • Energy Costs
    • Medical Costs
    • Recreational Costs
    • Other
  • Campaign Strategies
    • Dominant Issue Focus
    • Dominant Offense Focus
    • Consistent Theme
    • Other
  • Other Voter Metrics – Voter Perceptions about the Presidential Candidates
    • Optimistic Vision
    • Character
    • Courage
    • Caring
    • Competence
    • Other

For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election plus All of My Ten Surprising Predictions

Please read my new book Great News for America.  In it, I make ten surprising predictions that will probably come true before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election.  I also discuss in Chapters 5 and 6 the political party realignments of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.  It’s available in a print edition from Amazon and other book sellers.  It’s also available on Kindle and other e-book devices.

For More Information on Presidential Elections

Please read my Ten Laws for Winning Presidential Elections. It offers many helpful insights into the dynamics of a winning presidential election campaign. It’s available for free on this website.

Personalized, Small Group, Executive Briefings Available

Dr. Lameiro is available to do a limited number of personalized, small group, Executive Briefings (from one to ten top executives from a single organization) on these two topics:

  1. Understanding the Dynamics of the 2016 Historic and Critical Presidential Election including the Current Forecasted Winner
  2. Understanding the Economic Climate and Opportunities for 2017 and Beyond with a New President and Administration

Each Executive Briefing lasts about two hours and includes time for in-depth Q&A.  Both can be scheduled on the same day, eliminating the need for two separate trips to attend both briefings.

Venue for the Executive Briefings is Vail, Colorado.

For more information or to schedule an Executive Briefing, please click the Contact button on this page.