Republican Presidential Race – What Happens Next?

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Lindsey Graham has now decided to suspend his campaign for the Republican nomination.  Scott Walker, Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal suspended earlier.  As we approach January and then the important Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, South Carolina primary, and Nevada caucuses, what’s next in the Republican presidential race?  The Republican contest started with 17 candidates, it’s now down to about a dozen.  We know Trump consistently leads nationally.  We know Cruz has moved ahead in Iowa with his grassroots, analytics based campaign.  We know Christie has recently moved up in New Hampshire.  Where do we stand?  Who will drop out next?  When will they drop out?  Let’s discuss the scenarios now …

Where Do We Stand?

According to the RealClear Politics Average of national polls, Trump is averaging about 34%, with the Monmouth University poll giving Trump a substantial 41% lead.  Cruz comes in at about 17%, with Marco Rubio in third place at 12%.  After his perceived weak response to the Paris terrorist attacks, Carson dropped precipitously and has not recovered.  He stands at about 10% in fourth place.

Of the remaining eight candidates, Bush has about 5%, Christie 3%, and the rest about 2% or less.

How Does the Field Breakdown in Terms of Outsiders vs. Establishment and Conservatives vs. Establishment?

Outsiders – Trump, Cruz, Carson, Fiorina

Establishment – Rubio, Bush, Christie, Paul, Kasich, Huckabee, Santorum, Pataki

Conservatives – Cruz, Carson

Will the Timing of Candidates’ Campaign Suspensions influence Securing the Nomination?

Yes, it is quite possible.  Consider these 4 scenarios for how remaining candidates might work for the nomination –

  • 2 Outsiders + 3 Establishment Candidates – Delegates split among five candidates; Supporters of Establishment Candidates that suspend campaigns align with their favorite remaining Establishment Candidate
    • Trump and Cruz
    • Christie, Rubio, Bush
    • Trump or Cruz get nomination close to convention or at convention
  • 1 Conservative + 3 Establishment Candidates – Conservatives coalesce around Cruz; others split considerably making it easier for Cruz to pick up State victories
    • Cruz
    • Christie, Rubio, Bush
    • Cruz gets nomination in March
  • 2 Outsiders + 2 Establishment Candidates – Outsiders have delegate edge; takes a while for Trump-Cruz battle to play out
    • Trump and Cruz
    • Christie (or Rubio) and Bush
    • Trump or Cruz gets nomination after 8 – 12 week battle
  • 1 Conservative + 2 Establishment Candidates – Cruz wins after about 4 – 8 week battle; moderates coalesce around Christie or Rubio; ultimately, conservatives outnumber moderates and Cruz gets nomination
    • Cruz
    • Christie (or Rubio) and Bush
    • Cruz gets nomination in Spring

Great News for America

Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the critical presidential election of 2016 is scheduled to launch on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016.

Great News for America makes ten surprising predictions that are bold and powerful.  These are stunning predictions whose impact go far beyond this election.  Indeed, this book predicts some historic events for America that will take place before, during and after the 2016 presidential election.  Those events will positively impact America for decades to come.

Sandy Frazier will be managing Dr. Lameiro’s National Book Tour starting in January.  Please contact Sandy Frazier to schedule a TV or Talk Radio interview.