What are the Latest Presidential Election Trends?
While the Democratic National Convention with its dark vision for America is over and the Republican National Convention is in progress with an optimistic vision of greatness for America’s future, what presidential election trends are evident?
- Anarchy in our cities run by Blue City mayors is an increasingly important issue
- Covid 19 lock downs in States run by Blue State governors is an increasingly important issue
- Voter registration preferences are trending down for the Democratic Party and up for the Republican party
- Voter Enthusiasm and Voter Intensity trends favor President Trump by a wide margin
- The probability of a contested presidential election that takes weeks to resolve is declining
Presidential Elections Trends #1 – Anarchy Issue Adds to President Trump’s Electoral Victory
While Blue State Democrat governors and Blue City Democrat mayors and other Democrats initially thought anarchy in American cities would favor Joe Biden’s election, it now appears that they are changing their minds.
The evidence indicates that anarchy, rioting, looting, arson, property damage, and injuries to citizens and police officers is increasing turning off American voters on Joe Biden and other Democrats running for office.
You can expect to hear Biden, Harris and others on the Left try to now talk tough, but the electoral damage has already taken place for the Democrats. President Trump is seen as America’s leader on law and order issues.
Presidential Elections Trends #2 – Covid 19 Lock Down Issue Adds to President Trump’s Electoral Victory
While the Democratic Party hoped to pin all the Covid 19 deaths on President Trump’s handling of the Covid 19 response, the argument has flipped on the Democrats. American Voters now see President Trump’s actions as decisive and effective.
Although some voters worry about catching or spreading the Covid 19 virus, most think that the lock down responses of Blue State governors and Blue City Mayors to be too extreme, too harsh, too arbitrary, and too economically and socially damaging to themselves and the nation.
American Voters are concerned too that school lock downs and closures have too negative an impact on children and parents.
American Voters like President Trump’s efforts to open the schools, the country, and the American Economy.
Current Voter Registration Preference Trends Add to President Trump’s Electoral Victory
Right now, we are seeing Democratic Party registration preference trending down at about 1% per month. In sharp contrast, Republican Party registration preference trending up at about 1.5% per month.
That’s means a shift of over 5% voter preference since Memorial Day. This significant shift will add to President Trump’s electoral victory.
Voter Enthusiasm and Voter Intensity Trends Add to President Trump’s Electoral Victory
Joe Biden’s Voter Enthusiasm is lower now than Hillary Clinton’s Voter Enthusiasm in 2016. It’s also lower than Mitt Romney’s Voter Enthusiasm in 2012.
In contrast, President Trump’a Voter Enthusiasm is higher than he had in 2016 because he kept his promises and turned out to be more conservative than voters thought during the 2016 presidential campaign.
With regard to Voter Intensity, Biden is in the basement and Trump’s Voter Intensity is off the charts.
Long, Drawn Out, Contested Presidential Election Unlikely
There has been recent speculation that the presidential election might become a long, drawn out, and contested election that might take weeks or months to determine the winner.
For example, Hillary Clinton is quoted as saying on a cable TV show that:
“Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually, I do believe he will win if we don’t give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is …”
[Source: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/08/25/hillary-clinton-has-some-election-advice-for-biden-n2575015 .]
Others have suggested that counting millions of mail-in ballots might slow down totaling the votes.
Democrats are even suggesting Trump will not leave office if he loses, indicating that they expect a prolonged battle.
It has been reported that the Biden campaign has even hired 600 lawyers to be prepared to contest the election.
But, all of this talk is probably just talk and idle speculation. The trends suggest another answer.
Currently, it appears that this election will see an historic voter turn-out. Because the election appears to be shaping up as a referendum on the Constitution and Freedom vs. Socialism, Marxism, and Communism, more Americans likely will vote than in a typical presidential election.
Given a large turn out for the Constitution and Freedom and against the Democratic Party’s agenda of socialist programs and policies, it will probably not be a close election at all.
Presidential Election Forecast – Trump 348 Electoral Votes vs. Biden 190 Electoral Votes
My current forecast model remains unchanged. President Trump should be reelected rather easily.
All five of the Presidential Election Trends discussed above also point to President Trump’s reelection.
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