Presidential Election Scenarios – Possible?

Presidential Election Scenarios – What’s Possible?

While many presidential election scenarios are possible, few people have thought about them. Of course, some scenarios are more likely than others. Here’s a quick list of some potential presidential election scenarios:

  • Trump wins in a landslide on Election Day and Biden concedes that day
  • Trump wins in a landslide on Election Day and Biden doesn’t concede immediately
  • Biden waits for a flood of last minute mail-in ballots and declares victory two weeks later
  • Trump and Biden litigate mail-in ballots in State Court of battleground States that might determine the Electoral College Vote
  • Trump or Biden not satisfied with the State Courts takes their case to the Supreme Court where a 4 – 4 tie among justices, gives Chief Justice Roberts the job of picking Trump or Biden president
  • Electoral College meets on Monday, December 14, 2020 and neither Trump nor Biden get 270 Electoral Votes because some States’ results are in litigation or are in recount processes and these States fail to cast their Electoral Votes on time
  • Neither Trump nor Biden get an Electoral College majority of 270 Electoral Votes on Election Day
  • Electoral College results in a tie vote of 269 – 269.
  • House votes because Electoral College doesn’t pick a president. Uses One State – One Vote method to pick a president
  • House ties 25 States – 25 States.
  • Senate picks Vice President, who then becomes President

There are lots of possible scenarios as shown above. Let’s look at some possibilities in more detail now.

Presidential Election Scenarios – Election Day

The usual outcome is the simplest and easiest – one candidate wins and his opponent concedes.

While many polls have shown Biden to be leading this year, my forecast still shows a Trump landslide. Others have predicted a landslide too.

If Trump wins a significant landslide on Election Day, Biden should concede.

But, Hillary Clinton has said Biden should not concede “under any circumstances.” Here is the more complete quote from NBC News:

“Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances, because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually I do believe he will win if we don’t give an inch, and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is.”

[Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/hillary-clinton-says-biden-should-not-concede-2020-election-under-n1238156 .]

On August 25th, Trump tweeted:

“80 Million Unsolicited Ballots are impossible for election centers to tabulate accurately. The Democrats know this better than anyone else. The fraud and abuse will be an embarrassment to our Country. Hopefully the Courts will stop this scam!”

{Source: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1298404245629284354?lang=en .]

If that happens, attention will turn to late mail-in ballots.

Presidential Election Scenarios – Late Mail-in Vote Counting

Late mail-in ballots seem to favor Democratic Party candidates. For example, consider California’s 21st Congressional District 2018 race.  Three-term Republican Rep. David Valadao appeared to have easily won on Election Night by 7%. But, after several weeks of late ballot counting, Rep. Valdao’s opponent T. J. Cox was elected by 832 votes or about 0.75% of the total of all votes caste. That’s a close loss of one House seat for the Republicans.

[Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/ .]

[Source: https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_21st_Congressional_District .]

Of course, some pundits speculate that voter fraud might be involved.

By States mailing unsolicited ballots out, some analysts believe voter fraud is made much easier and tempting to fraudsters. Why?

  • Some people might have moved to another city or State
  • Some people might have died
  • Some people are not interested and might just give away their ballot

Will State Courts, Federal Courts, and the Supreme Court Get Involved?

The mail-in ballot, and potential or actual voter fraud, might slow up vote counting. Importantly, it might slow things up by involving State and Federal Courts and ultimately the Supreme Court.

Some States might not get to vote in the Electoral College because their States’ ballots and the results are tired up in the Courts.

Presidential Election Scenarios – Electoral College – 270 Electoral Votes Needed

But, no one may get up to the needed 270 Electoral Votes:

  • If some States don’t get their votes in by December 14th, neither Trump nor Biden might get 270 Electoral Votes
  • If the Electoral College vote ties at 269 – 269, no one wins either

If the Electoral College doesn’t pick a president, then it moves to the U.S. House.

Election Moves to the U.S. House

In the House, each State Delegation gets one vote for president (One State – One Vote). California with 53 House Representatives gets the same one vote as Wyoming with one Representative. A winner requires a simple majority of 26 votes.

Currently, 26 House Delegations are controlled by Republicans, 23 by Democrats, and 1 House Delegation is tied. A tied Delegation gets no vote.

Right now, if the election goes to the House, Trump would be elected 26 – 23.

But, today’s House doesn’t get to vote. The newly elected House will vote and we don’t know what the makeup of that body will be at the moment.

What if the House Ties 25 – 25?

In this case, the Senate picks the new Vice President by a One Senator – One Vote rule. The new Vice President then becomes the new president. Note that Mike Pence or Kamala Harris might become president instead of either Trump or Biden.

Presidential Election Scenarios – Lots of Possibilities Could Take Place

The Election Day results, the mail-in votes, voter fraud, the State and Federal Courts, the Supreme Court, the Electoral College, the U.S. House, and the U.S Senate – all might be involved in ultimately electing the president of the United States of America.

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