Presidential Election Forecast

My Presidential Election Forecast has Changed Dramatically!

My current Presidential Election Forecast Model differs from the conventional political wisdom. While most people assume former VP Joe Biden has locked up the Democratic Party nomination for President and will face President Donald Trump this fall, my current model indicates he will lose that nomination at the real (or virtual) Democratic Party nomination in August to another democrat, most likely Michelle Obama.

In the race for the nomination, Biden currently has about 1,352 Delegates, almost 650 Delegates short of the 1,991 Delegates needed to secure the nomination. Sen. Bernie Sanders has about 939 Delegates (about 1,052 Delegates short). That’s why the decision to cancel the New York State Democratic Party Presidential Primary is so very important.

Will Canceling the New York State Democratic Presidential Primary Impact the Democratic Nomination?

This week the New York State Board of Elections led by Democratic Co-Chair Douglas A. Kellner made the decision to cancel the New York State Democratic Presidential Primary.

The reason cited was that Sanders had dropped out of the race and Biden was the only candidate now in the race, and the Covid 19 virus made it difficult and expensive to hold the primary in those counties with no other contested races.

Up for grabs in the canceled Democratic Presidential Primary is not only 274 Delegates for the presidential nomination, but 274 Delegates that can influence the Democratic Party Platform at the convention. The Sanders campaign fought hard to get those 274 Delegates and is upset that the primary has been canceled.

But, there are another two big reasons why the cancellation is potentially a big deal to Biden’s nomination:

  • First, the 274 NY Delegates could have moved Biden much closer to the nomination, and
  • Second, other States might follow NY State and cancel their respective Democratic Party Presidential Primaries, denying Biden enough Delegates given his likely win’s by being the current presumed front runner.

Biden no longer can be assumed to have a first ballot nomination victory. The second ballet will then usher in a brokered convention that we have not witnessed in years.

Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee?

For months, I forecast Biden as a likely placeholder candidate picked by Establishment Democrats to build a firewall to Sanders nomination.

Looking at the data and political trends, it now appears that Michelle Obama can and will win the Democratic Party nomination.

The 2020 Presidential Election Forecast

President Trump is on-track to win the 2020 Presidential Election, despite a major economic dip this summer due to the Covid 19 virus:

  • President Trump – 348 Electoral Votes
  • Michelle Obama – 190 Electoral Votes

Needed to win the presidential election is 270 Electoral Votes.

The U. S. House of Representatives will switch to Republican control. The U. S. Senate will remain under Republican control with one extra Republican seat.

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