Political Trends and Predictions

What are the Newest Political Trends in America Today?

Let’s take a few minutes to identify and assess the newest political trends in America today. Obviously, the latest political trends have been impacted and even sometimes dramatically shifted by the Covid 19 virus and the resulting shut down of the American Economy.

But, how have long-term models (24 – 36 years), short-term models (2 – 8 years), and dynamic election models (1- 24 months) and their corresponding trends been affected? Will the models and trends be permanently altered? Or, are the changes to the models and trends simply temporary?

Plus, how will the 2020 presidential election and Congressional elections be impacted, if at all?

Let’s look at the models first.

What about the Long-Range Models and Political Trends?

If you read my fifth book More Great News for America, there are four bedrock principles: morality, freedom, peace, and prosperity that Americans seek in their government. In that book, I state that:

“Americans expect morality in their government.  Americans expect their government to promote, protect, and defend their freedom.  In addition, Americans expect their government will promote, protect, and defend peace — both external peace with other nations and internal civil peace among fellow citizens.  Internal civil peace is evidenced by living under the Rule of Law for all citizens, even the so-called elite.  Finally, Americans expect their government to empower prosperity through political and economic freedom, and the Rule of Law by enforcing implied and written contracts.”

These bedrock principles underlie the long-range models and the trends that the models predict.

In 2020, America’s moral outrage over several factors have reached a political tipping point. These factors include:

  • Moral outrage over the deep state and its corruption and its treatment of President Trump – evidenced by the Russian election hoax, unnecessary impeachment, and phony case against Michael Flynn
  • Moral outrage over the long, drawn out, shut down of the America Economy and it’s economic impact on 40+ Million unemployed Americans
  • Moral outrage over taking away Americans freedom – especially the freedom to go to work and school, the freedom to attend religious services, the freedom to travel, the freedom of free association, the freedom to criticize Governors and other elected officials
  • Moral outrage over the arbitrary and capricious rules dealing with the Covid 19 shutdown – for example, abortions are essential services, but a hip replacement for a patient in pain is not essential, or another example, it’s essential to buy marijuana, but it’s not essential to buy tomato seeds

The long-range models are trending toward the following outcomes in 2020:

  • A confirmation of the 2016 presidential election of a popular, conservative president. In other words, President Trump will be re-elected by American voters, confirming their 2016 election result.
  • A continued erosion of the strength and viability of the Democratic Party that is on the verge of shutdown. In other words, we will see the Democratic Party shut down shortly after the 2020 presidential and Congressional elections.
  • A continued shift of the media that Americans listen to and trust (from the old mainstream media to the new media). Expect more layoffs in the mainstream media such as at CBS News this week and the rise of newer media such as Talk Radio and Internet media such as Zero Hedge and The Epoch Times.
  • A continued shift in the Supreme Court to a conservative super-majority. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will likely leave the Supreme Court in 2021 and President Trump will appoint 2 to 3 more conservative Supreme Court justices during his second term.

What about the Short-Range Models and Political Trends?

The short-range models are still moving essentially in the same direction as in 2016. The American voters want these trends to take place:

  • Return to faith in God, not government.
  • Restore morality in our lives.
  • Restore morality and trust in government.
  • Restore education (vs. political indoctrination) in K-12 schools, colleges, and universities.
  • Shrink the government and its influence down to a more manageable and cost-effective size.
  • Shrink the regulatory state. Make it easier to start a business, hire people, make money, and innovate.
  • Return to reason vs. junk science and emotion, in the development of public policy.
  • Don’t make public policy decisions based on unverified, doomsday models – such as Climate Change Models and Covid 19 Models

What about the Dynamic Election Models and Political Trends?

The dynamic election models are indicating that these trends are taking place:

  • Socialism is still the #1 issue of this election year
  • The American voters will reject socialism and will tend to vote against any political candidate or incumbent who supports socialism.
  • Many, younger, Bernie Sanders supporters that do support socialism will stay at home because the Democratic Party did not support Bernie Sanders.
  • Many, older Democratic Party voters will actually vote for President Trump because they believe he is a safer choice for them.
  • Many minority voters align more closely with President Trump than with the the Democratic Party candidate. This makes a President Trump victory even easier for him.

What about Other Predictions?

Here are additional predictions for 2020:

  • The shutdown of the American Economy and the slow re-start of the economy in Blue States will primarily hurt the Democratic Party.
  • President Trump will be trusted by the American voters to re-start the American Economy faster than the Democratic Party candidate because he built up the American Economy in his first 3 years in office.
  • Joe Biden’s gaffes and inability to speak clearly and concisely and accurately will cause the Democratic Party to select a different presidential nominee.
  • Most likely, Michelle Obama will be selected to run as president by the Democrats.
  • President Trump will get 348 Electoral Votes to the Democratic Party candidate’s 190 Electoral Votes.
  • Significant voter fraud will be attempted in 2020, but it will not be successful for two large reasons: (1) mechanisms put in place by Trump to identify voter fraud, and (2) large pro-Trump turnout.
  • The U. S. House will flip back to Republican control by 5 to 8 seats.
  • The U. S. Senate will remain under Republican control with a pickup of 1 seat.

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