After NY Primary, Does Trump have a Lock on the Nomination?
If we include the results of the NY Primary, I’m currently forecasting that Trump will have between 1145 and 1195 delegates on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention this July. If this is an accurate forecast, it means that Trump will be denied a first ballot nomination despite all his primary wins to date. 1237 is the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination.
After NY Primary, What’s Up Next?
On the heels of the NY Primary, comes a series of 10 primaries at the end of April and into May. They are mostly closed to people not in the Republican Party.
On April 26th, the Pennsylvania Primary with 71 delegates is a major prize. But, only 17 of the 71 delegates are pledged to vote for the winner of the primary. These are at-large, bonus and RNC delegates. The other 54 delegates are selected in an unusual LOOPHOLE type primary where delegates are selected separately from the State presidential candidate preference in each of 18 Congressional District primaries. In addition, these 54 delegates are officially unpledged.
In June, There are Five States including California with 172 Delegates
On June 7th, the 2016 presidential election primary and caucus season finally ends with five primaries. These are:
- South Dakota – 29 Delegates
- New Mexico – 24 Delegates
- New Jersey – 51 Delegates
- Montana – 27 Delegates
- California – 172 Delegates
California’s entire slate of delegates is selected on June 7th. Each of 53 different Congressional Districts is allocated 3 delegates for the winner of that CD. 13 at-large and RNC delegates are allocated at the State level to the overall State primary winner. The presidential campaigns select the actual delegates to attend the Republican National Convention.
California delegates are bound to support the presidential candidate they are pledged to support until the person is nominated to be president, or the candidate receives 10% or less of the votes on a ballot, or until the candidate releases his or her delegates, or until two ballots have been completed. Thereafter, delegates are free to vote for whomever they choose.
For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election plus Ten Surprising Predictions
Please read my new book Great News for America. In it, I make ten surprising predictions that will probably come true before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election. Available on Amazon and from other book retailers. Available on Kindle and other e-book devices.