Iowa caucus is only one week away and news stories about the Republican presidential nomination race fill the news media. What are some of the big questions on citizens minds as we approach the Iowa caucus? What answers do we have today? Let’s discuss these questions now …
Iowa Caucus – Big Questions Now
- Of course, the first big question is who will win? Scott Walker was the early leader. But, he left the race long ago. Ben Carson was the leader for a time with about 29% near his peak back in the October timeframe. Ted Cruz got up to about 32% and was the leader from about the second week of December to the second week of January. Donald Trump now appears to be leading in Iowa with about 32% to Ted Cruz’s 27%. Currently, Rubio is in third place with all others distant runnerups.
- How big a turnout will we see in Iowa? Turnout might be the determining factor in who wins Iowa? Trump and Cruz appear to be motivating many first time caucus goers. Who will succeed? I’m not sure we really know with a great deal of accuracy.
- Has the large Margin of Error distorted our understanding of the Republican presidential nomination race in Iowa? Probably not. With so many polls being taken, we know the polls are roughly consistent.
- But, the key factor is how accurate are the underlying polling models and polling results? As I discuss in my new book Great News for America, this is a historic and critical presidential election. Results might be dramatically different than we think today based only on the polling models. It’s possible for either Trump or Cruz to dramatically sweep the Iowa caucuses.
- What about the so-called “establishment” candidates? Rubio, Bush, Christie, and Kasich are likely to lose big time.
- What about the lower tier “conservative” candidates? Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Santorum are likely to have very low caucus support.
- What about the “libertarian” candidate? Rand Paul is not likely to move the meter in Iowa.
- What results can we expect? We probably will have one decisive winner – Trump or Cruz. We will probably have one solid runner-up – Trump or Cruz. The establishment candidates will all likely stay in the race to continue the race in New Hampshire. Two of the other five will likely drop out immediately. Most likely Huckabee and Santorum will drop out soon.
Great News for America
To read more about the historic and critical 2016 presidential election, please read my new book Great News for America. It makes ten surprising predictions that will probably happen before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election.