How Might Impeachment Affect the 2020 Presidential, House and Senate Elections?
It’s unusual to have the impeachment of a president at any time in American History. It’s even more unusual to take place so close to a presidential election. Here are some of the potential impacts President Trump’s impeachment might have on the 2020 presidential, House and Senate races:
Will it impact President Trump’s chances of reelection?
Will it impact who the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee will be?
Will it impact control of the U. S. House of Representatives and the U. S. Senate?
Will it become the #1 presidential campaign issue of 2020?
Let’s answer each of these questions below.
Will it Impact President Trump’s Chances of Reelection?
The answer to this first question is Yes! But, not in the way Democrats might like. President Trump’s reelection is receiving an electoral boost. His base and his supporters see the impeachment as Democratic Party harassment and resistance and as a complete waste of taxpayer’s money. They see Democrats as fighting Trump’s efforts to “drain the swamp,” which is precisely why they sent Trump to Washington.
President’s Trump’s base is fired up. Voter enthusiasm and voter intensity is actually much higher now than in 2016.
In sharp contrast, rank and file Democrats are concerned about the “extremes” in their party – extreme Left wing and socialist positions on issues and extreme tactics to thwart the president.
Add these factors together and President Trump can expect to get a much higher Electoral Vote count in the 2020 Presidential Electoral College.
Will it Impact Who the Democratic Party’s Presidential Nominee Will Be?
The answer to this question is “Yes” again! Several Senators will be sidelined from campaigning while the impeachment is taking place. Bernie Sanders in particular will be hurt in a number of early races. Elizabeth Warren will likely be hurt even more. Joe Biden will get a much needed boost for his lackluster campaign. Pete Buttigieg will get more face time to boost his candidacy.
The billionaires, Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, get more time to run their TV ads and have their staff seek more support.
The bottom line is that rather than help make the Democrats pick a presidential candidate more quickly, the impeachment actually will muddy up the waters and increase the likelihood of an eventual brokered convention.
Will it Impact Control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate?
Yes! The impeachment is increasing the probability that the House will flip to Republican control and will be much more conservative and supportive of President Trump and his policies than in the past.
On the Senate side, the Republicans will likely pick up two additional seats and the makeup of the Senate will also be more conservative and more supportive of President Trump and his policies than in the current Senate.
Will it Become the #1 Presidential Campaign Issue of 2020?
No! While impeachment is helping President Trump and the Republican Party in 2020, it is not the #1 campaign issue.
Socialism is still the #1 Presidential Campaign Issue of 2020.
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