Establishment Republicans Lost the House, Not Trump

Establishment Republicans Lost the House in the 2018 Elections, Not President Trump

Let’s look at the Establishment Republicans and their scorecard in the 2018 Congressional elections for the House of Representatives. Some analysts have claimed that President Trump was responsible for losing control of the House to the Democrats. That’s simply not true.

Remember Establishments Republicans generally did not enthusiastically endorse President Trump or his conservative, populist policies.

The numbers are now available. Republicans gave up 42 incumbent seats in the House due to retirements and resignations. There were 28 Republicans that retired and 14 Republicans that resigned. All 42 Republican incumbents that gave up their seats were not available for fund-raising and easy reelection, as most incumbents generally get reelected easily.

How Many of the 42 Republican Incumbents were Establishment Republicans?

  • It turns out 25 of the 42 incumbents were NOT pro-Trump enthusiasts in the House.
  • That means the House lost 25 Establishment Republicans before the election ever took place.

Who Replaced the 25 Establishment Republicans Lost in the House?

Good news for President Trump.

  • 35 new pro-Trump Republicans won election to the House, replacing all but 7 of the 42 Republicans who retired of resigned.

Not a bad result for President Trump.

  • He lost 25 who were NOT pro-Trump and for pro-Trump policies.
  • But, he picked up 35 new pro-Trump Republicans (among existing Republican-held seats).

What about the Other 29 Republican Incumbents, Who ran for Reelection and Lost?

Of the 29 other Republican incumbents that lost in the 2018 election, 24 were NOT pro-Trump enthusiasts.

What is the Establishment Republican Scorecard?

The Establishment Republicans lost the following members in the House:

  • They lost 25 of the total number of 42 retirements and resignations
  • They lost 24 other incumbents of the 29 incumbents, who ran and lost
  • Total Lost = 49 Establishment Republicans seats lost in 2018

What is the Overall House Scorecard?

  • 234 Democrats
  • 199 Republicans
  • 2 Undecided Seats
  • Total Loss of Republican Seats = 39

Establishment Republicans Lost the House in the 2018 Elections, Not President Trump

Contrary to some analysts that claim President Trump was the reason the Republican Party lost the House, I disagree. Republican candidates that supported President Trump did much better in the election. Even some Democrats campaigned that they would work with President Trump.

The American voters, in my view, chose to vote out of office 49 Establishment Republicans, who were not conservative enough and who did not adequately support the president and his policies. In their place, American voters also chose to elect 35 new conservative Republicans that will support President Trump and his policies.

The Conservative Red Wave (I Predicted) is Taking Two Elections to Complete, Not One

The American voters decided that the easiest way to get rid of non-conservative, Establishment Republican incumbents was to vote them out of office in 2018, and then to replace them in 2020.

  • Step 1 – 2018 Election – Vote out Establishment Republicans (49 are now gone)
  • Step 2 – 2020 Election – Replace the Republican seats lost to the Democrats with Conservative Republicans

The American voters realize the House will not be able to accomplish any new socialist programs in 2019 and 2020 with the Republicans holding the Senate and with President Trump.

The American voters no longer could tolerate Establishment Republicans in Washington that talked conservative during elections, but voted like Democrats when in office. That’s why the Establishment Republicans lost the House. President Trump is the clear winner.

I think the long-range and short-range conservative trends will continue and the House will flip back to the Republicans and be even more conservative in 2020.