Early Forecast for the 2020 Presidential Election

Who is Ahead in the Early Forecast for the 2020 White House Race on the Democratic Side?

In the early forecast for the 2020 presidential election on the Democratic side, the top contenders appear to include:

  • Sen. Kamala Harris (CA)
  • Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX)
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama
  • Former VP Joe Biden
  • Former Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton

Realistically, each of these potential top contenders suffers from a variety of problems. Yet, each does benefit from some strengths among their respective bases.

Surprisingly, to many political pundits, Michelle Obama might be the strongest of the five contenders despite her repeated denials of interest in a presidential run.

Consider her autobiography called Becoming. It sold 3 million copies in its first month of sales. That’s equivalent to a staggering sales rate of one book sold per second. She received $65 Million for the book deal from Crown Publishing.

Michelle appears to be waiting on the sidelines to jump in.

Hillary Clinton seems to be moving ahead with a run for The White House as well. But, she does not appear to have the popularity to gain the nomination again. She is tainted with having run a mediocre campaign in 2016.

Kamala Harris wows socialists around the country, running with her laundry list of budget-busting programs such as Medicare-for-All.

My forecast as of today is Michelle is in the lead with Kamala Harris coming in second place for the Democratic nomination.


Who is Ahead in the Early Forecast for the 2020 White House Race Among Independents?

The early forecast among potential independent candidates might surprise some experts. Mitt Romney signaled he is in the running with his Washington Post op-ed the day before he was sworn in to the U. S. Senate this month. Obviously, he attacked President Trump, a funny way to treat the leader of your own party and someone who helped elect you to your senate seat.

Mitt Romney is positioned to start an independent campaign possibly on a new political party, a spin-off party called the Republican Progressive Party. He might even run with former Governor John Kasich as his VP choice.

Another potential independent candidate who appears to be considering a run is billionaire and former CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently warned Schultz not to run because he thinks it would assure President Trump of a reelection by splitting President Trump’s opposition.


Who is Ahead in the Early Forecast for the 2020 White House Race Republican Nomination?

That’s easy. President Trump has the lock on the nomination.

What is My Current Early Forecast for the 2020 Presidential Election?

The trends are moving in President Trump’s favor despite a variety of short-term negative factors. Here’s my current early forecast:

  • Donald Trump – 367 Electoral Votes
  • Michelle Obama – 171 Electoral Votes
  • Mitt Romney – 0 Electoral Votes