Coronavirus Peak – Will it Come to an End in Mid-April to Mid-May?
About two weeks ago, I predicted that the coronavirus peak would take place between mid-April and mid-May with 80% probability and the coronavirus panic would end at that time. My current forecast model continues to look like the coronavirus peak has hit in some areas and is close to hitting its peak in other areas.
I now think it likely that the current closings of businesses, offices, schools, and Churches will end and in fact, will begin to re-open around Easter Sunday, April 12. This fits well with President Trump’s hope of seeing America get back to normal by Easter.
Why is the model projecting a fairly early end to the coronavirus and its associated media-fanned panic?
Coronavirus Peak with More Mild Cases
A week ago, data seemed to indicate that approximately 80% of coronavirus cases would be relatively mild with relatively mild or minor symptoms not requiring hospitalization or advanced medical treatment.
The latest numbers are indicating that as many as 97% of cases are indeed more minor with mild symptoms.
It is entirely possible that tens of thousands or even millions of Americans have already been exposed to the coronavirus and show no symptoms or such minor symptoms that they think that have just an ordinary cold.
After all, only the sick or very ill patients are tested. Since we don’t routinely test the entire population without symptoms being present, the infection rate might not continue to grow as the coronavirus has fewer potential new people to infect.
Some Immunity Might Already be Building Up in the Population
If there are thousands (or possibly millions) of exposed people with little or no symptoms, a substantial amount of immunity might be present in the population. If so, the infection rates around the country might start to decline in the next few weeks.
Despite Limited Early Data, Some Locations Might Actually be Peaking
In some locations around the United States, new cases per day are declining. If this early limited data continues, the coronavirus peak might already have been achieved.
Of course, this might be just wave one of the coronavirus pandemic and a wave 2 could occur in the fall. But, if there are subsequent coronavirus waves of the infection, further immunity should be present in the population as well, mitigating its adverse effects.
Some Drugs Show Promise of Containing the Coronovirus
Good news also came on the scene this week. Hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug, along with azithromycin (brand name Zithromax Z-Pak), a drug used to treat upper respiratory infections, seemed to work well with patients in a limited study in France. Using these two drugs, 100% of patients recovered from coronavirus by the sixth day.
Hydroxychloroquine also has the benefit of limited side effects. For some patients, hydroxychloroquine might cause some stomach irritation or vision changes. But, it seems to be considered a relatively safe drug.
Healing coronavirus patients infected with the virus in a matter of days has another positive benefit. After recovering, patients stop infecting other people they might run into.
We are Weeks not Months from Getting America Back to Normal
I think there is enough data to indicate that America is weeks, not months, away from returning to normal.
With 80% probability, I expect the coronavirus peak to end in the mid-April to mid-May timeframe and America to quickly return to normal.
Long Term Impacts of the Coronavirus Peak in 2020
Here are the long term impacts from the coronavirus peak in 2020 that I forecast:
- Americans will become healthcare independent of the rest of world , including China by 2022.
- No longer will America permit one country from supplying 80% of our antibiotics, 91% of hydrocortisone, 95% of ibuprofen, etc. as China currently does.
- Americans will be slightly more health conscious.
- No doubt Americans will wash their hands more frequently.
- Americans will not panic from the next “new flu” that comes along.
- No longer will Americans purchase pallet-loads of TP for flu season.
What about the 2020 Presidential Election?
President Donald Trump will be applauded for how well he handled the Corona Virus crisis and he will be re-elected easily with 367 Electoral Votes.
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