Carson’s Ahead of Trump – What’s Next?

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In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on Tuesday, November 3rd, Carson has moved ahead of Trump 29% – 23%. That’s the second of three major national polls that show Carson has become the frontrunner in the race for Republican presidential nomination. Is this a major polling change or a temporary post-debate bump? Will Trump drop out rather than be #2? Let’s discuss these questions and more now …

What are Polling Numbers Now for the Top 5 Candidates?

Tuesday, November 3 – NBC/WSJ – Carson 29, Trump 23, Rubio 11, Cruz 10, Bush 8, Others 3 or lower

Saturday, October 31 – IBD/TIPP – Trump 28, Carson 23, Rubio 11, Cruz 6, Bush 6, Others 3 or lower

Tuesday, October 27 – CBS/New York Times – Carson 26, Trump 22, Bush 7, Fiorina 7, Others 4 or lower

Clearly, in the most recent three national polls, Carson and Trump are in a virtual tie nationally.  But, Carson is trending up and Trump is trending down.  Rubio and Cruz are virtually tied for third place.  Bush and Fiorina generally are lagging behind, except for the CBS/New York Times poll from about one week ago.  The others don’t seem to have much traction in the polls.

Will Donald Trump Pull Out of the Race if He Sinks to the #2 or #3 Spot?

In my opinion, Trump is only comfortable in a top role in any organization.  I don’t think he would accept the Republican VP nomination.

If Trump Pulls Out, Can Rubio or Cruz Challenge Carson for the Top Spot?

In my opinion, yes.  I think the voters are looking more closely at the content of each candidate’s views now.  Rubio and Cruz seem to both be funded and well-positioned to move ahead, if voters like their plans.

What about Bush and Fiorina and the All the Others?

Bush has re-booted his campaign for about the fifth time and does not seem to be gaining much traction or momentum.  Fiorina did not get another bounce after the third debate.  In my opinion, Bush, Fiorina and all the other candidates need to start moving quickly, if they want to be seen as viable candidates against the top four – Carson, Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.

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Originally posted on November 2, 2015 on