Can American Restart Day be as Soon as May 1st?
American Restart Day is the day coming soon when most or all of America returns to “business as usual.” Before looking at a potential American Restart Day, let’s compare some model predictions vs. actual statistics.
According to a frequently cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model, hospital bed and intensive care bed demand will peak on April 15 while deaths per day will peak on April 16. For April 5, the actual death toll in the U. S. from the Covid 19 model was 1,165 according to both worldometers.info and statista.com. Compare this statistic of 1,165 with the IHME model range of 1,166 – 2,775 with an estimate graphed at 1,745.
[Sources on April 6, 2020: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/; https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/.]
Let’s look at deaths in the State of New York. The IHME range for April 5 is 259 – 1,690 with an estimate graphed at 713. The worldometer.com statistic given is actually 594.
The envelope or range surrounding estimates in the IHME model is commonly used in modeling of real world problems to indicate the uncertainty surrounding estimates.
In my opinion, prediction estimates by several models for the Covid 19 virus have been on the high side, possibly indicating the modelers desire to be over prepared rather than under prepared to meet the needs of potential patients.
When Will the Covid 19 Outbreak Peak?
As I mentioned on March 12:
“I predict that most likely (probability 80%), the corona virus panic will end when the normal flu season ends and the impact of the corona virus also begins to diminish. While estimates of the total impact of the corona virus on the number of cases and the death rate might vary, the end of the corona virus panic is finite and will likely end in the mid-April to mid-May timeframe.”
It appears to me that the Covid 19 (Corona Virus) outbreak (and panic) will peak following my prediction of April 15 to May 15.
Will American Restart Day be May 1?
Given that the Covid 19 outbreak will peak in the April 15 to May 15 timeframe and the requirement for hospital beds and ICU beds will also peak, the demands on our healthcare system will start to lessen.
At the same time, thousands of Americans will have already gained immunity from the disease from recovering from the virus, or being exposed to it and beating it with their own immune systems. Recall from another earlier blog post that 97% of people getting Covid 19 will likely have no symptoms or only mild symptoms.
In addition, several anecdotal stories indicate that the twin drug therapy of hydroxychloroquine (an antimalarial drug) and azithromycin or brand name Zithromax Z-Pak (a drug used to treat upper respiratory infections) will help prevent some patients (possibly healthcare workers) from ever getting the symptoms associated with Covid 19 and will also help ill patients recover from the disease.
We know some experts would prefer to run extensive research studies before using this drug combination, but when there is positive evidence it works and people are dying from the disease, clinicians want to save lives. Extremely ill patients should have the “right to try” a drug that might save their lives.
American Restart Day on May 1 with Some Reasonable Precautions to Avoid a Second Wave
In my opinion, American Restart Day can be May 1. Americans can go back to normal life on May 1 in my opinion. It makes sense in my view to start with those States that are least impacted by Covid 19, and progress to all 50 States over approximately a two week period. In addition, it makes sense to do the following to avoid extending the illness into the summer and to avoid a second wave of the disease:
- Follow all the usual good health practices of washing your hands often and sanitizing surfaces and door knobs on a more frequent basis.
- Stay home, if you get sick from Covid 19 or any other communicable disease. Contact your doctor or hospital if you need them, probably calling them before you hope to arrive.
- Use common sense in all your activities.
- If you are in a high risk group, consider avoiding crowds and again use your common sense.
Will the Left Oppose President Trump When He Attempts to Restart the American Economy?
The big question is this: After the Covid 19 virus peaks and President Trump attempts to restart our damaged economy, will the Left oppose him to further damage the American Economy, further attempt to damage his chances for reelection, and further promote their long battle to transform America into a socialist nation?
America needs to be prepared for those on the Left that seek to transform America into a socialist country.
America will win the ideological battle. America will continue to be a Constitutional Republic with freedom and capitalism.
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