How Fast Will America Open for Business?
While America fights the Covid 19 virus, we also need to have America open for business. As we learn more about the Covid 19 models that were used to justify shutting down America, and we also gather more data on those impacted by the virus, the unprecedented and costly shutdown of our $22 Trillion economy is being questioned.
Let’s try to answer some key questions about Covid 19 and the American Economy:
- What were the major problems with the Covid 19 models?
- Who is truly at greatest risk of dying from Covid 19?
- How is Covid 19 spread from person to person? Is social isolation necessary? Is it even desirable?
- Would America have had the same Covid 19 impact without shutting down so much of the American Economy?
- How fast will America open for business?
Let’s start with the Covid 19 models.
What Were the Major Problems with the Covid 19 Models?
Although the various models used by Federal and State officials were developed by different people in different places, they all seemed to share one thing in common, they consistently over predicted how bad the Covid 19 virus was.
Some of the models predicted that there would be so many hospitalizations that hospital capacity would be inadequate to cover Covid 19 patients as well as normal hospitalizations. Some models also predicted that there would not be enough intensive care unit (ICU) beds and not enough ventilators for Covid 19 patients. Of course, the models also forecast staggering death tolls too.
Covid 19 models for the United States predicted 2+ Million deaths, 1.2 Million deaths, 90,000 deaths, 81,000 deaths, 60,000 deaths, etc. The actual death toll might be as low as 50,000 deaths by this summer. Compare that with a typical flu season of up to 80,000 deaths in the U. S.
We don’t want anyone to die from Covid 19. But, was this virus really so terrible that we needed to shut down a large chuck of the American Economy and place 17 – 20 Million people out of work in the first few weeks.
Other Covid 19 problems included:
- Using outdated information on hospital bed and other resources currently available in the U. S. tended to exacerbate the capacity problem
- Assuming incorrect SIR (Susceptible, Infection, Recovery) rate parameters in the models for Covid 19 could easily result in much higher infection rates and death rates
- Assuming incorrect R0 values (initial infected person infects R0 others) that might then grow exponentially
- Note R0 should be pronounced “R sub zero”
- The wrong R0 value could adversely impact the accuracy of some models
- Treating all individuals alike – not sufficiently including different human, cultural and geographical factors – also might not reflect the actual spread of Covid 19 and its infection process
Who is Truly at Greatest Risk of Dying from Covid 19?
We now know that most people that are exposed to the Covid 19 virus are likely to show no symptoms or very mild symptoms. In fact, one estimate is that 97% of all people exposed to the virus will have few, if any, symptoms.
We have also learned that older Americans are at higher risk for getting a serious case of the Covid 19 virus. For weeks, we have been told that older citizens with certain existing conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, COPD, or an immune suppressed illness were more likely to contract a serious case of Covid 19.
This week we learned of a new study that indicated old age + obesity were a particularly bad set of circumstances in getting a very serious case of the infection. Such patients were also more likely to die from the disease.
Younger patients (younger than senior citizens) were less likely to get bad cases of Covid 19. In fact, as the age of patients increased from childhood through adulthood up to senior citizens, mortality increased almost exponentially.
So, senior citizens, who are overweight or who have other major health issues, are of greatest risk of dying from the Covid 10 virus.
How is Covid 19 Spread from Person to Person? Is Social Isolation Necessary? Is it Even Desirable?
According to several newer research studies performed in the U. S. and Israel, social distancing and social isolation might not even be necessary. In the U. S., one researcher found that States that moved to early social distancing, did no better than States that adopted no social distancing measures, or States that moved to late social distancing.
Another study done in Israel compared countries performing major closures and no closures. Again, the major closure efforts did not appear to bear significant health improvements. It must be noted, however, that different countries exhibit vastly different cultures and other population characteristics.
Another question that has been asked: Is social distancing even desirable? Some think not. Why? Since 97% of people will get few, if any, symptoms, this group of people will help to develop natural antibodies to the virus. Why delay this so-called “herd immunity?”
Bottom line. Social distancing and shutting down the American Economy might not have been necessary or desirable from a medical perspective.
In a few heavily hit locations such as New York City, it might have spread out the impact on hospitals so that potential capacity issues would not arise.
Would America Have Had the Same Covid 19 Impact without Shutting Down So Much of the American Economy?
I think a case could be made that the Covid 19 Epidemic of 2020 might better be termed the Covid 19 Panic of 2020. The panic seems to have been generated by the Left in America and the mainstream media’s hype of the Covid 19 models staggering death predictions, which apparently greatly exaggerated the impact of the virus on most Americans.
I think some caution with Covid 19 was needed. But, I also think that we will look back ten years from now and think that shutting down the American Economy was unnecessary and a costly economic mistake.
Are Fake Models the Tool of the Left and Fake News to Transform America into a Socialist Country?
The Covid 19 Panic seems so reminiscent of the Left’s recent wild claim that the global climate change models indicate that we have only about 12 years to save the planet.
Fake Models seem to go together with Fake News and the Left and socialism.
How Fast Will America Open for Business?
The indications are that America has passed the Covid 19 virus peak. I think we should start planning to have America open for business on May 1st.
I want to suggest a new hashtag #AmericaOpenForBusiness .
Let’s announce May 1st soon to give everyone a chance to get back to a normal life gracefully.
I think social distancing is not needed. Senior citizens with compromised health situations and those in nursing homes should probably take precautions to avoid anyone that might be ill.
Will the Left Oppose America Open for Business?
The big question is this: After the Covid 19 virus peaks and President Trump attempts to restart our damaged economy, will the Left oppose him to further damage the American Economy, further attempt to damage his chances for reelection, and further promote their long battle to transform America into a socialist nation?
America needs to be prepared for those on the Left that seek to transform America into a socialist country.
America will win the ideological battle. America will continue to be a Constitutional Republic with freedom and capitalism.
America will be open for business soon.
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Selected Sources: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935673/ ; https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/age-and-obesity-are-biggest-risk-factors-for-covid-19-hospitalization/ ; https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative ; http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/278658?fbclid=IwAR2rQdgULZcWe7IRCvgc76nDBk3R4xaYVJCzHWd7CRZJK8Bkt9roXztiyHc ; https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/21213472/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity-cases-death ; https://www.healthline.com/health/herd-immunity#effectiveness ; https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm .