Can America Get Back to Normal on June 1st?
Americans want to know when America can get back to normal. When can we return to life as we had prior to the Covid 19 shutdowns. To get a better understanding of the situation, let’s look at the real world data we currently have on the virus in America, rather than look at the unverified Doomsday Covid 19 Models and their failed predictions.
When we do look at the data, we can get back to normal by June 1st, albeit with a few changes to minimize the spread of all viruses and bacteria. In other words, we can live relatively normal lives, but add some good hygiene habits like washing our hands more frequently and protecting people over 65 with serious health problems.
Did We Prevent our Healthcare System from Getting Overwhelmed? – Yes and America Can Get Back to Normal!
Recall that the reason for States to lock down and shutdown the American Economy was to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed by Covid 19 cases requiring enormous numbers of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. It was not to prevent everyone from getting infected and it was not to prevent deaths.
According to The Lancet, an independent, international weekly general medical journal:
“It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect. Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK’s experience with that of other European countries.”
[Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext, May 5, 2020.]
We now know that the Covid 19 infection curves have peaked in America and are declining, even in locations in and around New York City that were hit hardest during the outbreak of the virus.
That means the true objective of the shutdown was achieved. America avoided States and cities flooding its hospitals with more Covid 19 patients than the existing capacity could handle. In fact, inaccurate guidance from the Doomsday Covid 19 Models resulted in overbuilding hospital capacity such as at the Jacob Javits Convention Center in New York City. We also now have a greater supply of ventilators than necessary.
America can get back to normal because we succeeded in preventing our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.
Should Most Americans Fear Dying from the Covid 19 Virus? – No!
Again, let’s look at some data. Here is data derived from the CDC. It is from data from the week ended February 1, 2020 to the week ended May 9, 2020, updated May 13, 2020. It is the percent of Covid 19 deaths by age group:
- Under 1 Year – 0.007 %
- 1 – 4 Years – 0.003%
- 5 – 14 Years – 0.01%
- 15 – 24 Years – 0.11%
- 25 – 34 Years – 0.71%
- 35 – 44 Years – 1.77%
- 45 – 54 Years – 5.05%
- 55 – 64 Years – 12.3%
- 65 – 74 Years – 21.0%
- 75 – 84 Years – 27.2%
- 85 Years and Over – 31.9%
Clearly, people 65 and older are at greatest risk from dying from the Covid 19 virus with 80.1% of all deaths.
[Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex, May 13, 2020.]
Those individuals in the 65 and older age group are probably at greater risk if they also have other health issues such as:
- High Blood Pressure
- Other Respiratory Diseases
- Other Circulatory Diseases
It appears that most Americans will not die from the Covid 19 virus.
What about Children and Covid 19 and Keeping Schools Closed in the Fall?
Children can be infected with the Covid 19 virus. However, their symptoms generally are milder than adults and rarely are severe. In those cases requiring being admitted to a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU), 83% had underlying pre-existing medical conditions in one study of 40 children reported in the JAMA Pediatrics.
[Sources: https://www.livescience.com/children-coronavirus-infections.html and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2766037#nav. May 11, 2020.]
Discussing Covid 19, The Lancet: Child & Adolescent Health medical journal states:
“Although children appear to contract infection at the same rate as adults, they largely have mild or asymptomatic forms of the disease and appear to be less likely to spread the virus through coughing or sneezing; however, a precise understanding is as yet lacking.”
More studies are needed with regard to the current Covid 19 virus’ impact on school closing. However, the same journal article concludes:
“Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic.”
Given the data, it appears that America can confidently allow children to return to schools this fall. The adverse economic, social and health risks to children and adults for extended school closures seem to out weigh the limited medical benefits.
Two Big Conclusions
- The unverified Doomsday Covid 19 Models should not be relied upon for public policy and continuing to shutdown America into the summer and fall of 2020.
- It seems reasonable that America can get back to normal by June 1st, but add some good hygiene habits like washing our hands more frequently and protecting people over 65 with serious health problems.
Covid 19 – Freedom and Capitalism vs. Rigid Government Control and Socialism
The debate between those who want to re-open America and those that want to keep America shut down to the fall or beyond is real and palpable.
It is a debate between conservatives who want to maintain America’s freedom and capitalism and socialists who want to transform America into a socialist or communist country.
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