April 2020

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Presidential Election Forecast

My Presidential Election Forecast has Changed Dramatically! My current Presidential Election Forecast Model differs from the conventional political wisdom. While most people assume former VP Joe Biden has locked up the Democratic Party nomination for President and will face President Donald Trump this fall, my current model indicates he will lose that nomination at the real (or virtual) Democratic Party nomination in August to another democrat, most likely Michelle Obama. In the race for the nomination, Biden currently has about 1,352 Delegates, almost 650 Delegates short of the 1,991 Delegates needed to secure the nomination. Sen. Bernie Sanders has about…


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Is Covid 19 a Political Virus?

Is Covid 19 a Medical Virus Turned into a Political Virus? It appears now that the Covid 19 virus is no longer simply a  medical virus that threatens the health of Americans, it has become a political virus that the Left is exploiting: To shut down the American Economy To damage President Trump’s chances for reelection To limit our Freedom To destroy capitalism To transform our Constitutional Republic into a socialist country Red Flag Warning! The Left is using the Covid 19 virus to not only scare Americans, but to control the American Economy and to achieve socialist objectives they…


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America Open for Business – Will It Come Soon?

How Fast Will America Open for Business? While America fights the Covid 19 virus, we also need to have America open for business. As we learn more about the Covid 19 models that were used to justify shutting down America, and we also gather more data on those impacted by the virus, the unprecedented and costly shutdown of our $22 Trillion economy is being questioned. Let’s try to answer some key questions about Covid 19 and the American Economy: What were the major problems with the Covid 19 models? Who is truly at greatest risk of dying from Covid 19?…


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American Restart Day – May 1?

Can American Restart Day be as Soon as May 1st? American Restart Day is the day coming soon when most or all of America returns to “business as usual.” Before looking at a potential American Restart Day, let’s compare some model predictions vs. actual statistics. According to a frequently cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model, hospital bed and intensive care bed demand will peak on April 15 while deaths per day will peak on April 16. For April 5, the actual death toll in the U. S. from the Covid 19 model was 1,165 according to both…


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After Covid 19, Will the Left Oppose Restarting America?

Covid 19 Will Peak in the Next Few Weeks – What Will Happen Then? Covid 19 according to the best predictive models will peak in the next few weeks. You will recall weeks ago, I predicted the peak would take place between April 15th and May 15th with 80% probability. The Covid 19 peak means that the number of new cases per day will start declining as most seasonal flu virus infections do normally. Eventually, there will probably be no new cases on a given day. The precise day that Covid 19 will peak is a function of many variables….