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Who’s Ahead in Trump-Clinton Race?

Who’s Ahead in the Trump-Clinton Race This Week? In the Trump-Clinton race this week, Trump has moved ahead by 2 points according to an NBC News / Survey Monkey Weekly Tracking Poll.  According to this national tracking poll, conducted online among about 14,000 adults (about 12,500 registered to vote), Clinton holds the edge over Trump with 48% to 45%.  This is down from the previous week’s numbers, 49% to 46%.  The error estimate for this particular poll is +/- 1.2%.  It is nearly a statistical tie with the momentum currently going to Trump. This means the Trump-Clinton gap has moved…

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Will a Third Party Candidate Deny Both Trump and Clinton Needed 270 Electoral Votes?

Will a Third Party Candidate Throw the Election into the House of Representatives? A third party candidate might prevent both Trump and Clinton from getting the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the 2016 presidential election by winning only about six States. What third party candidate scenarios are possible? Why are people considering them? What’s likely to happen next in this historic, critical and often tumultuous 2016 presidential election? Let’s discuss these questions now … Why Don’t All Establishment Republicans and Conservatives Support Trump? Many establishment Republicans as well as conservative Republicans fall into the categories of #NeverTrump or #NotSureAboutTrump….

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Will Kasich Assure Trump’s Nomination?

Will Kasich Assure Trump’s Nomination? While John Kasich is largely being ignored by the media, will Kasich assure Trump’s nomination? According to a Public Policy Polling survey released this week, 49% of voters in the John Kasich’s State of Ohio think its time for him to exit the race.  This is a big reversal from two months ago when 52% of Ohio voters thought he should stay in the race. Does it matter if Kasich stays in the race or not?  If he continues to stay in the race until the July convention, what is the impact on the Republican…

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Who Will Get the Unpledged Delegates at GOP Convention?

Who Will Get the Unpledged Delegates at the GOP Convention in July? It appears unlikely that either Trump or Cruz will get to the magic number of 1,237 delegates to garner the Republican presidential nomination on the first ballot in Cleveland in July.  At that point, the “unpledged delegates” will become potentially critical in the nomination process. But, also there are three other important groups of delegates that might give the nomination to Trump or Cruz. Some delegates are pledged to candidates who have suspended their campaigns.  These delegates are the so-called “orphaned delegates.”  In addition, some delegates are “pledged…

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After NY Primary, Does Trump have a Lock on the First Ballot?

After NY Primary, Does Trump have a Lock on the Nomination? If we include the results of the NY Primary, I’m currently forecasting that Trump will have between 1145 and 1195 delegates on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention this July.  If this is an accurate forecast, it means that Trump will be denied a first ballot nomination despite all his primary wins to date.  1237 is the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. After NY Primary, What’s Up Next? On the heels of the NY Primary, comes a series of 10 primaries at the end…

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What Really Happened with Colorado’s Republican Delegates?

What Happened to Colorado’s Republican Delegates? There’s been a virtual firestorm over Cruz winning Colorado’s Republican Delegates.  What really happened in Colorado?  What process was followed?  Were the Delegates stolen by Cruz?  Is it just sour grapes on the part of people that wanted Trump to get the Delegates?  Let’s look at it from the point of view of someone who know’s the process and who attended a Colorado Republican Congressional District Convention and the Colorado Republican State Convention. What’s the History of the Colorado Delegate Selection Process? Literally, the Colorado caucus approach to the selection of Colorado Delegates to…

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Is Paul Ryan Running for the Republican Presidential Nomination?

Is Paul Ryan Running for President? While Trump and Cruz are battling it out for delegates to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July, Paul Ryan might be setting the stage for a strong run at the presidential nomination on the second ballot at the convention, or even the third ballot.  Is this thought just a wild speculation in April?  Or, is there enough evidence at this point to definitely conclude Paul Ryan is truly running for president?  Let’s talk about it now … Paul Ryan – Why Do We Think He Might be Running for President? Paul Ryan…

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Do Trump and Clinton have a Solid Lock on their Potential Nominations?

Do Trump and Clinton have a Lock on their Potential Nominations? Trump and Clinton have their nominations all locked up.  At least, that’s what some people think.  Is it really true?  Or, will both Trump and Clinton be overtaken by Cruz and Sanders, or Paul Ryan and Joe Biden?  Let’s discuss this incredible 2016 presidential race now … Trump and Clinton – How Can their Nominations be Overtaken? Here are some scenarios that might change who the ultimate Republican nominee is this fall: Neither Trump nor Cruz get to the 1,237 threshold of needed delegates to secure the nomination (after…

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Where the Race Stands after Arizona, Utah and American Samoa?

Where Does the Race Stands after Arizona, Utah and American Samoa? Arizona and Utah boosted the delegate totals for Trump and Cruz on Tuesday.  Here’s an update on where the Republican presidential race stands on Wednesday, March 23rd, after the Arizona Primary (58 Delegates, Winner-Take-All, Closed), Utah Primary (40 Delegates, Proportional, Closed), and the American Samoa Convention (9 Delegates, Unbound, Open): Trump – 739 Delegates (30%) Cruz – 465 Delegates (19%) Kasich – 143 Delegates (6%) Other Suspended Campaigns – 181 Delegates (7%) Rubio – 166, Carson – 8, Bush – 4, Fiorina – 1, Huckabee – 1, Paul – 1 Uncommitted –…