The latest Monmouth University poll was released on Monday and Cruz now is in the #1 spot in Iowa. Importantly, Carson dropped 19% since the last Monmouth University poll in which Carson was in the #1 spot. That, of course, seems to trace back to voters perceiving Carson as weak on global terrorism. Carson voters appear to have largely moved to Cruz. Now, we are about eight weeks from the Iowa caucuses and about nine weeks from the New Hampshire primary. Cruz appears to be gaining momentum, not only in Iowa, but also nationally. Will Cruz now cruise to the Republican nomination? Let’s discuss the Republican presidential race in more detail now …
What’s the Latest in Iowa?
The Monmouth University poll for Iowa released on Monday provides these results:
- Cruz – 24%
- Trump – 19%
- Rubio – 17%
- Carson – 13%
- Bush – 6%
- Paul – 4%
- Fiorina and Kasich – 3%
- Christie and Huckabee – 2%
- Santorum – 1%
- Graham – <1%
- Gilmore and Pataki – 0%
The number of voters in the sample was 425. The Margin of Error is +/- 4.8%. Significantly, the poll indicates that turnout for the Iowa caucus might be about 140,000. That would be a record high turnout for the past 35 years. Previous high was 122,000 voters. This is consistent with the record turnout I envision for the presidential election in my new book scheduled to launch Tuesday, January 5th. Watch for more details on the new book coming soon.
Note that Monmouth University changed their polling methodology slightly, since their last poll. This poll included some general election voters, not just primary voters. If the old model was used, Cruz and Rubio would be higher and Trump lower.
What’s the Latest in New Hampshire?
Trump still leads Cruz 27% to 13% with Rubio in the #3 spot with 11%. Bush has 5%. This is from Public Policy Polling on Thursday, December 3rd.
Momentum in New Hampshire goes to Cruz and Christie. Cruz has gone from 6th place to 2nd place. Christie has gone from 9th place to 4th place.
What’s the Latest in National Polls?
In the CNN/ORC poll released on last Friday, Trump led Cruz 36% to 16% with Carson in 3rd place at 14% and Rubio in 4th place at 12%.
Who’s Got the Overall Momentum? Does It Matter?
It appears that it’s still a two person race between Trump and Cruz. It also seems like Cruz has the overall momentum. Voter momentum is a critical parameter in predicting election results. Given the strength of his current momentum, it’s possible that Cruz will cruise to the Republican nomination. But, of course, many things can still impact the final result, just as the Paris attacks knocked Carson out of the #2 slot.
Dr. Lameiro’s New Book is Coming Soon
Dr. Lameiro’s new book on the critical presidential election of 2016 is coming soon – Tuesday, January 5th. It makes ten stunning predictions that will happen before, during, and after this vitally important election. Sandy Frazier will be managing Dr. Lameiro’s National Book Tour. If you are a TV or Talk Radio Host or Producer, please request an early copy of Dr. Lameiro’s new book. This is the one book on the presidential election that you will not want to miss.