Voter Momentum Signals a Trump Victory in November
Clinton took a considerable lead in the polls after the Democratic National Convention, but voter momentum has clearly and dramatically increased for Trump since then. The Quinnipiac poll gave Clinton a 10% lead over Trump on August 25th. Currently, the LA Times/USC poll gives Trump a 7% lead. While polls vary somewhat among themselves, and while results of individual polls can vary within their margins of error (often 3% – 5%), polls show an enormous shift toward Trump in recent weeks. What’s going on with the polls? What trends and issues are driving voter momentum and voter intensity? More importantly, who will win this historic and critical presidential election? Let’s discuss these questions now …
What is Fueling Trump’s Voter Momentum?
- Clinton’s Integrity Deficit – The FBI Director’s statement about Clinton’s “reckless” behavior and her being “extremely careless” with regard to classified government materials set the stage for the further erosion of the public’s view of her integrity. The DOJ’s failure to indict Clinton helped make the public think there was a double standard – one standard for ordinary Americans and another standard for politically well-connected establishment politicians. On top of that, the almost daily drip-drip-drip of leaked emails has further damaged her integrity in the eyes of potential voters.
- Clinton’s Actual Health Questions and Clinton’s Lack of Transparency about her Health – Adding to her integrity deficit, Clinton also recently experienced a collapse/stumbling episode after her 9/11 event appearance. Then, it was termed that Clinton was dehydrated. Belatedly, it was announced that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia. The health related issues included:
- Coughing spells
- Blood Clot
- Inability to remember many activities during FBI interview
- Head bobbing and eye popping episodes
- After the 9/11 collapse/stumbling episode, failure to seek medical treatment at a level 1 trauma hospital
- After the 9/11 collapse/stumbling episode, rapid recovery and public appearance, generating further suspicion of using a body double
- Clinton’s Lack of Campaign Activity –
- Lack of press conference in about 9 months
- Lack of campaign rallies and speeches
- Limited appearances at fundraisers
- Clinton’s Characterization of Half of Trump Supporters –
- Basket of deplorables
- “Racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic, you name it.”
- Probably, increased Trump’s voter intensity even further.
- Probably, a major campaign blunder similar to Romney’s 47% statement in 2012
What Trends are Taking Place that Influence the Polling Results?
- Voter Intensity Becoming Critical – Voter Intensity is a variable that measures whether voters who support a candidate will actually follow through and vote in the election for that candidate.
- Voter Intensity for Trump is Very High – Helps Trump a lot. Means voters will tend to overlook any Trump mistakes and vote for him.
- Voter Intensity for Clinton is Very Low – It appears that many Clinton voters will not actually vote in the election. She is not liked by many of her supporters. Many of her supporters are squeamish about her potential lies, dishonesty, and possible corruption (pay-for-play between the Clinton Foundation donors and State Department access).
- Voter Intensity for Clinton among Black and Hispanic Voters is Low Compared to Obama – Clinton will lose key States. For example, lack of Black voters will help give Trump the State of Ohio. Also, lack of Hispanic voters will help give Trump the State of Colorado. Both Ohio and Florida are critical battleground States.
- Recent Terror Attacks in NY, NJ, and Minnesota over the Weekend – For much of this presidential election campaign, global terrorism and the closely associated border security issues are the top issues in the election. Jobs and economy are #2. Clinton’s health has been important recently, but might not stay a key issue. The recent terror attacks will drive voters to Trump because of his tough stance on protecting Americans.
- Historic Small Donor (Less Than $200) Support for Trump – Since July (in less than 3 months), Trump has received an historic, record of 2.1 million small donations of less than $200, in total about an estimated $100 million. In comparison, Clinton’s small donor list was about 2.3 million donors. BUT, it took decades to develop that list, compared to Trump’s 3 month whirlwind summer.
What’s the Bottom Line?
Besides polls, there are many other vitally important forecasting variables. Voter Momentum and Voter Intensity are just two of those variables. Both these variables point to a Trump victory.
I continue to predict a clear and convincing victory for Trump.
For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election plus All of My Ten Surprising Predictions
Please read my new book Great News for America. In it, I make ten surprising predictions that will probably come true before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election. I also discuss in Chapters 5 and 6 the political party realignments of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. It’s available in a print edition from Amazon and other book sellers. It’s also available on Kindle and other e-book devices.
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