Who’s Ahead in Trump-Clinton Race?

Who’s Ahead in the Trump-Clinton Race This Week?

In the Trump-Clinton race this week, Trump has moved ahead by 2 points according to an NBC News / Survey Monkey Weekly Tracking Poll.  According to this national tracking poll, conducted online among about 14,000 adults (about 12,500 registered to vote), Clinton holds the edge over Trump with 48% to 45%.  This is down from the previous week’s numbers, 49% to 46%.  The error estimate for this particular poll is +/- 1.2%.  It is nearly a statistical tie with the momentum currently going to Trump.

This means the Trump-Clinton gap has moved from 5% to just 3% in only one week.

Who’s Ahead in the Trump-Clinton Race Among Various Voter Groups?

As expected, Clinton leads Trump among black and Hispanic voters, while Trump leads among white voters.  In a similar way, Trump is ahead among men, while Clinton leads among women.  High school educated voters favor Trump in contrast to college educated voters that favor Clinton.  People earning less than $50,000 per year tend toward Clinton, while those earning more than $100,000 favor Trump.

Of interest, 87% of Republicans support Trump and 87% of Democrats favor Clinton.  The same number, 87%, in both cases.  Significantly, Trump leads Clinton among independent voters 44% to 36%.

What’s Next?

Several possibilities are on the horizon:

  • There is still a real possibility of a third party candidate entering the race and throwing off the tracking poll numbers.  Third party candidates include: (1) an anti-Trump conservative candidate; (2) an anti-Trump establishment Republican candidate; and (3) an anti-Clinton candidate (probably Bernie Sanders, if he is not selected as the presidential or VP nominee).
  • Significant anti-Trump negative ad campaign by Clinton and Super-PACs supporting her candidacy.  Major negative ad campaign should start Wednesday of this week by the pro-Clinton Priorities USA Super-PAC.  Anti-Trump ads will target the potential battleground States of Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and Virginia.  Priorities USA has reserved $136M of ads total, $96M on TV.
  • Significant anti-Clinton negative attacks by Trump and his supporters.

What’s the Long Range Forecast?

If there is a third party candidate, a reassessment will be needed.

If there is no third party candidate, Trump will likely win the election easily.

For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election plus Ten Surprising Predictions

Please read my new book Great News for America.  In it, I make ten surprising predictions that will probably come true before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election.  I also discuss in Chapters 5, 6 and 7 the political party realignments of the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, and a possible new third party.  It’s available in a print edition from Amazon and other book sellers.  It’s also available on Kindle and other e-book devices.