Will Trump Beat Clinton in a Landslide? Are the Current Polls Misleading and Wrong?
Will Trump beat Clinton in a landslide, in a close election, or will it be the other way around? Are the polls wrong again? How can we make sense of the extreme volatility in the polls in the last two weeks? What’s going on in the general election campaign today? Will the new potential third party candidate, Evan McMullin, make a serious impact on the polls or the election? Importantly, who will probably be our next president? Plus, how close will the election results turn out to be?
What are the Current Polls Saying Now?
Trump received a short-lived 6% bounce after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Clinton received a comparable bounce after the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. Following the DNC, Clinton currently leads in the RealClear Politics (RCP) average general election polls by about 7%, although Clinton only leads by 1% over Trump in the LA Times/USC poll.
The current polls are likely influenced heavily by two factors: (1) the last bounce, the Clinton bounce, and (2) Trump going off message last week.
Are the Current Polls Misleading and Wrong?
Extreme Volatility. The on-going polling results are extremely volatile and probably indicate an electorate uncertain about who to vote for in the general election. Large swings, if they are accurate, indicate that the electorate has not made up their minds. If voters don’t eventually focus in on one person to become the next president, it’s possible the winner will be determined by their opponent, that is, whoever makes the the biggest mistake before Election Day, or whoever, has the biggest scandal or negative news revealed at the end of the campaign.
Underlying Models. Another factor that might be at work is that the underlying models upon which the polls are based are essentially inaccurate because they are not taking into account the dynamic behavior of voters in an historic and critical presidential election.
- Voter Turnout will be much higher than normal.
- Voter Intensity is very high.
- Voter Momentum is very high.
- Historic Political Party Realignments are taking place in both the Republican and Democratic Parties.
Polling Weaknesses. Still another factor in polling inaccuracy is the sample selected. Some polls are based on Adults selected at random, some on Likely Voters, some on Registered Voters. Some models ask respondents to self-identify how they voted in the past.
Voter Distrust of the Main Stream Media (MSM). Sometimes voters don’t accurately communicate their true voting intentions because they don’t trust the MSM and want to mislead them on purpose.
What about Evan McMullin? Will He Make a Significant Difference in the General Election?
The quick answer is No. There is no evidence he will impact the election at all.
Who Will Be Our Next President? Will It Be a Close Election?
I think the data still point to Trump being elected in a landslide. I believe polls will stabilize gradually, but will not show a Trump landslide until a few days before Election Day, if at all.
For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election plus All of My Ten Surprising Predictions
Please read my new book Great News for America. In it, I make ten surprising predictions that will probably come true before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election. I also discuss in Chapters 5 and 6 the political party realignments of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. It’s available in a print edition from Amazon and other book sellers. It’s also available on Kindle and other e-book devices.