Will Super Tuesday #2 Determine the Republican Nominee?

Will Super Tuesday #2 Be Decisive?

Super Tuesday #2 is March 15th.  It follows two weeks after Super Tuesday #1 on March 1st.  While Super Tuesday #1 was important, some people think Super Tuesday #2 might be decisive.  Will Super Tuesday #2 be decisive?  Will it determine the ultimate Republican presidential nominee?  Let’s discuss these questions next …

Going into Super Tuesday #2, Where Does the Republican Nomination Stand?

Here are the delegate counts going into Super Tuesday #2:

  • Trump – 460 (44%)
  • Cruz – 370 (35%)
  • Rubio – 163 (15%)
  • Kasich – 63 (6%)

That means Trump + Cruz hold nearly 80% of all awarded delegates.  Rubio + Kasich are lagging behind with about 20% of the delegates already awarded.

But, importantly, no one is close to the required 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Trump is in the lead obviously.  Even Trump must get 777 more delegates to win the nomination outright.

Who’s Got the Momentum?

According to the latest polling data:

  • Quinnipiac University poll reports Trump has a roughly 2-to-1 lead over Rubio in Florida – 46% to 22%.
  • CBS Battleground Tracker poll indicates Trump and Cruz are in a virtual statistical tie in Illinois – 38% to 34%.
  • Overall, since the most recent debate, in which Trump said it’s down to a two person race, Cruz seems to be gaining ground in Florida, Ohio, and Illinois.
  • On Monday, March 14th, Cruz might be going into Super Tuesday #2 with the overall momentum.

What are the Stakes for Super Tuesday #2?

Winner Take All States:

  • Florida – 99 Delegates (Closed Primary)
  • Ohio – 66 Delegates (Mixed Primary)
  • Missouri – 52 Delegates (Open Primary)
  • Northern Mariana Islands – 9 Delegates (Closed Caucus)

Proportional Delegate Allocation States:

  • North Carolina – 72 Delegates (Mixed Primary)
  • Illinois – 69 Delegates (Open Primary)

Notes:

  • Closed = Republicans only can participate
  • Open = Republicans, Democrats, and Independents can participate (but can only vote in one party primary)
  • Mixed = Republicans and Independents can participate (Independents can only vote in one party primary)
  • Northern Mariana Islands are a U. S. commonwealth, located northeast of Guam, roughly halfway between Hawaii and the Philippines

What are Key Things to Watch for on (and after) Super Tuesday #2?

Here are some things to watch for ON Super Tuesday #2:

  • Does Trump run the tables in Florida, Ohio, and Illinois?
  • Does Cruz make a strong showing in North Carolina, Ohio, and Illinois?
  • Does Kasich carry Ohio?
  • Does Rubio finish in third place in his home state of Florida behind Trump and Cruz?
  • Does Trump pick up another 300 delegates?
  • Does Cruz pick up another 150 delegates?

Here are some things to watch for AFTER Super Tuesday #2:

  • Does Rubio suspend campaign?
  • Does Rubio endorse Kasich?
  • Does Kasich suspend campaign?
  • Does Romney enter the race?

For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election + Ten Surprising Predictions

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