Where Does the Presidential Election Really Stand Today?
The presidential election is approaching quickly. We are now only about 35 days before Election Day. In fact, early voting has begun in some States. The polls have gone back and forth. Personal attacks are being hurled left and right. Major issues have been ignored in many cases. For example, does the average voter realize the Obama administration has just given the Internet away to an international body?
The debates are in progress. The next presidential debate is Sunday, October 9th, at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri.
Where does the presidential election really stand today? Let’s look at this election in some detail …
Where are the Polls Today? What about Voter Momentum?
Clinton has moved up in most polls and Trump has declined in these same polls in the last week or so. However, these poll results are typically in (or close to) the Margin of Error.
Why did the polls change this much? Clinton went on the offense and effectively attacked Trump on personal matters, namely, the Alicia Machado issue and Trump’s taxes. These types of attacks are fairly standard and to be expected. Trump spent too much time on defense, never a good strategy. Please see my Ten Laws for Winning Presidential Elections and specifically, Law 9, The Law of the Dominant Offense.
Overall, Voter Momentum still is going to Trump, but at a slower pace. Trump needs to stop this trend now or face losing the election. I have said many times that this election is Trump’s election to lose.
What about Voter Intensity?
There is no major change on Voter Intensity. It’s very high for Trump and very low for Clinton. Of course, continued erosion of Voter Momentum can eventually start to impact Voter Intensity.
What Should Trump Do Next?
Trump needs to get off the defense now and go on the offense. He doesn’t have to utilize personal attacks, although with Clinton’s Integrity Deficit and related matters such as government emails stored on a personal server, extreme carelessness when handling classified information, and other issues, Trump has plenty of material to use.
It’s sufficient for Trump to go on the offense on the Dominant Issue (global terrorism, ISIS, border security, need to build up military, law and order) and the other big issues this year (jobs and economic security).
On the top issues, Trump holds a winning hand. Trump trumps Clinton on every top issue.
Plus, American voters want CHANGE in Washington. Trump represents change. Clinton is synonymous with the Establishment in Washington and the inability to solve the nation’s problems. Clinton’s Integrity Deficit includes serious charges of corruption.
What Will Clinton and Her Allies in the Mainstream Media Do Next?
Expect a steady diet of personal attacks and character assassination in October. It’s working now. It probably will continue. Note such attacks might or might not be based in fact.
For More Information on This Year’s Presidential Election plus All of My Ten Surprising Predictions
Please read my new book Great News for America. In it, I make ten surprising predictions that will probably come true before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election. I also discuss in Chapters 5 and 6 the political party realignments of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. It’s available in a print edition from Amazon and other book sellers. It’s also available on Kindle and other e-book devices.
Personalized, Small Group, Executive Briefings Available
Dr. Lameiro is available to do a limited number of personalized, small group, Executive Briefings (from one to ten top executives) on these two topics:
- Understanding the Dynamics of the 2016 Historic and Critical Presidential Election including the Current Forecasted Winner
- Understanding the Economic Climate and Opportunities for 2017 and Beyond with a New President and Administration
Each Executive Briefing lasts about two hours and includes time for in-depth Q&A. Both can be scheduled on the same day, eliminating the need for two separate trips to attend both briefings.
Venue for the Executive Briefings is Vail, Colorado.
For more information or to schedule an Executive Briefing, please click the Contact button on this page.