New Hampshire Primary – Key Questions

New Hampshire Primary – Coming Up Tuesday February 9, 2016

New Hampshire primary is coming up only eight days after the Iowa caucuses.  The results in Iowa were surprising to many 2016 presidential election watchers.  Ted Cruz and his strong ground organization trumped Donald Trump and won after numerous recent polls predicted Trump would be victorious.  Also, Marco Rubio, whose numbers had been somewhat flat in recent Iowa polls, suddenly jumped up into third place, nearly beating Trump, and winning the same number of Republican National Convention delegates as Trump, namely 7 delegates.  Of particular importance, it was a historic Republican caucus turnout.  This foreshadows my prediction of a historic 2016 presidential election with a record high voter turnout in my brand new book Great News for America.

New Hampshire Primary – Key Questions to Consider

Let’s consider some key questions on the eve of the New Hampshire primary.

  1. Will the polls be wrong again?  Will Ted Cruz pull off another surprise victory?
    • Trump currently holds commanding leads in most national and New Hampshire primary polls. But, they will probably drop somewhat as we approach the New Hampshire primary.  Cruz has shown Trump is not invincible.
    • Cruz has a strong edge in the areas of campaign organization, analytics, and management.  He also seems to have better positioning on many conservative issues.  Cruz’s approach to conservatives is that Trump is not a true “consistent” conservative.  Will this work in New Hampshire?
    • This might be a very tight race with the outcome going either way.
  2. Will Trump attack Cruz or Rubio or both?  Or, will Trump not attack either and go on a policy offensive trying to look presidential?
    • Trump is being pursued from multiple directions.  He risks losing precious time and resources if he attempts to attack Cruz and Rubio (and possibly Bush, Christie and Kasich too).
    • Will Trump decide going negative isn’t working that well and go positive instead?
    • Will Trump decide to spend the money on a first class analytics team?  Can he get the most experienced people at this late date?
  3. Will Santorum suspend his campaign before the New Hampshire primary?
    • Probably, yes.  Most likely, Rick Santorum’s best chance was Iowa.
    • In Iowa, he received about 1% of the votes.
  4. Of the three other “establishment” candidates, will any drop out before New Hampshire to solidify establishment support for Rubio?
    • Probably not.  Kasich, Christie and Bush have all had mini-surges in New Hampshire polls for a while.
    • They will probably chose to stay in the New Hampshire race to try to win.
    • Marco Rubio will not likely get their help.
  5. Which candidates will probably survive the New Hampshire primary and go on to South Carolina and Nevada?
    • Trump, Cruz and Rubio look strong to continue on to South Carolina and Nevada.
    • I think Ben Carson has sent mixed signals in the last week.  I give him a 50-50 chance of continuing on.
    • Of the establishment four candidates, Rubio, Kasich, Christie, and Bush, I expect the lowest performing candidate (among the four) to suspend his campaign.
    • I think Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore to both drop out fairly soon after New Hampshire.

Great News for America

To read more about the historic and critical 2016 presidential election, please read my new book Great News for America.  It makes ten surprising predictions that will probably happen before, during, and after the 2016 presidential election.  It’s available in print and Kindle editions and is available through Amazon and other retail booksellers.  You can also click here to buy a copy now.