Facebook, Dow Jones and Presidential Campaign Models

Facebook, Trump, and Obama Presidential Campaign Models – Breaking News

Facebook made big headlines this week due to Facebook users’ personal data being utilized in presidential campaign models. There are at least five reasons summarized here:

  • Facebook lost $40 Billion of market capitalization today (market capitalization or market cap for short is the value of all Facebook stock shares put together) after regulators in both the U. S. and U. K. criticized Facebook for allowing users the ability to access personal data that allegedly helped the Trump presidential campaign. [Note 1]
  • Facebook stock dropped 6.77% on Monday. [Note 2]
    • As a result of Facebook’s stock price decline, the Dow Jones apparently dropped 336 points on Monday. [Note 6]
  • The NY Times and London’s Observer reported a political consulting firm, Cambridge Analytica, had improperly obtained data on 50 million Facebook users and didn’t delete it. [Note 3]
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller has demanded emails from employees of Cambridge Analytica. [Note 4]
  • Carol Davidsen, former director of integration and media analytics for Obama for America, indicated that the Obama 2012 presidential campaign used Facebook data for its campaign. When Facebook learned the Obama campaign was using the data, they did not stop the practice. [Note 5]
    • “They came to office in the days following election recruiting & were very candid that they allowed us to do things they wouldn’t have allowed someone else to do because they were on our side,” Davidsen tweeted. [Note 5]

Why Did Facebook, Predictive Analytics, and Presidential Campaign Models Sink the Dow Jones Industrials on Monday?

This entire story about Facebook and the presidential elections of 2016 and 2012 all center around a little known topic, namely predictive analytics. In my brand new book, More Great News for AmericaI not only make 8 bold and surprising predictions about politics in America, but I also explain in common sense and easy-to-understand, language (without math and statistics) what predictive analytics are, and how they are related to presidential election models and polling. In my new book, I write:

“While forecast models take current or past data on many voters and project it forward into the future, predictive analytics tries to better understand what current factors are influencing individual voters to yield their likely future behavior.” [Note 7]

Predictive Analytics attempts to understand individual voters well enough to recognize what influences their voting decisions. A presidential campaign can then customize their outreach to individuals voters.

Facebook lost nearly 7% of its stock market price on Monday because investors were worried that the Facebook business model might be harmed as a result of using their data about individuals to help various presidential campaigns in the future. In addition, this controversy might erode the overall ability of Facebook to monetize its data and business model for other campaigns and commercial purposes.

The Facebook news also hurt the Dow Jones because it had a negative impact on tech stocks in general.

What’s the Impact on the Special Counsel’s Investigation?

Probably, very little. After all, presidential campaigns and other political campaigns have relied increasingly on predictive analytics models to optimize the allocation of campaign resources.

For More Information

For more information on predictive analytics, presidential campaign forecast models, and polling, please read More Great News for America.

More Great News for America makes eight new, bold, and powerful predictions about the political parties and their future viability; the actual upcoming Congressional elections; the makeup of the new House of Representatives and Senate; and achieving or not achieving the Trump agenda.  It also looks ahead to the upcoming presidential election with an early forecast.

More Great News for America also explains how and why the good guys win in the end, and forecasts four major, highly significant and truly profound, religious and cultural trends of the coming new Conservative Era: the Return to Faith in God, the Renaissance of Reason, the Restoration of Education, and the Rebirth of Morality, Freedom, Peace, and Prosperity.

This book explains the differences between, and the relationship among polls, models, trends, predictions, forecasts, and predictive analytics without boring readers with any complex mathematical and statistical details.  It answers the compelling questions why the polls were so wrong and misleading in the 2016 presidential election, and why Dr. Lameiro’s models, trends, predictions, and forecasts were so accurate.  Fortunately for readers, the answers are plain and simple and don’t require rocket science to explain or to understand.

Notes

Note 1: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-sheds-more-than-40-billion-of-market-cap-as-investors-flee-stock-2018-03-19

Note 2: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fb

Note 3: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/facebook-shares-slide-reports-data-misuse-120513980–finance.html

Note 4: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-trump-campaign.html

Note 5: https://ijr.com/2018/03/1077083-ex-obama-campaign-director-fb/

Note 6: http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/19/news/companies/stock-market-dow-jones-facebook/index.html

Note 7: Gerard Lameiro, More Great News for America, p. 42.